I would not be surprised to see the stock hit $10 this year once the market realizes that current FCF levels are sustainable and given that positive newsflow is usually autocorrelated (as is negative news: 'profit warnings come in 3s' etc.) This would correspond to a target price by 2027 of $15, but of course the market is forward looking.
This is how a mortgage works, but this is a much higher quality asset than a house (just look at margins, ROIC, and cash generation), and also far less leveraged than the average property investment. The same assumptions give ~100% upside by end 2027 by which point the company will have delevered to a much more reasonable level of 1.4x ND/EBITDA target. Clearly I expect the company to continue to delever from 2024 as 2.6x ND/EBITDA is still a high leverage ratio for an IT company. 'Listed private equity' of a highly cash-generative asset (without the fees, illiquidity, and valuation risk).ĮV multiple constant at $6530, but company de-gears by FCF every year, hitting 2.6x ND/EBITDA in FY 2025. (i) Bear-case: no re-rating, simple de-leveraging. I appreciate most people don't have access to such a system, but the steady-state nature of MCRO makes it amenable to ratio analysis anyway.ĮV today: $6530m (MC $2,377, ND FY0 $4153.5).įCF FY 2021 $285m (exceptionals this year: conservative) The discount rate would be better off derived from fama french 5-factor model, or, even better, a system such as HOLT's (I am currently building a similar system myself m/. Far worse businesses are on much higher valuations (lower discount rates). Old management made a bad acquisition (HPE/autonomy) that has taken 3 years to turn around, and have now gone, but the underlying business is high quality, sticky, boring, and cash generative and presumably requires good operational management which seems to be executing as evidenced by the high quality of earnings. com/article/4421863 -micro-focus-why-buy -rebound-unfolds-mfg p He summarises the situation here quite well I think. Quote and option data delayed at least 15 minutes stock quote data powered by Ticker Technologies, and Mergent.Jw330: analysis courtsey of beta adjusted from seekingalpha. Video widget and market videos powered by Market News Video.
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Micro focus international free#
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Nothing in is intended to be investment advice, nor does it represent the opinion of, counsel from, or recommendations by BNK Invest Inc. Micro Focus International Stock Split History | |Ĭopyright © 2013 - 2021, All Rights Reserved Below, we examine the compound annual growth rate - CAGR for short - of an investment into Micro Focus International shares, starting with a $10,000 purchase of MFGP, presented on a split-history-adjusted basis factoring in the complete Micro Focus International stock split history. Looking at the Micro Focus International stock split history from start to finish, an original position size of 1000 shares would have turned into 1000 today. Micro Focus International (MFGP) has 0 splits in our Micro Focus International stock split history database.
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